Florida: Red or Purple State?
Is Florida a “red” or “purple” state?
Florida has twice gone Republican for president and not elected a Democratic governor in more than a quarter century. Its two U.S. Senators are Republican as are 16 of the state’s 27 U.S. House members. Republicans occupy 24 of Florida’s 40 state senate seats (60%) and 78 of the 120 (65%) house seats. But the actual partisan vote suggests Florida is a “purple” state.
In the past four Florida presidential races Democratic candidates garnered a total of 18,321,850 votes compared to 18,495,688 for Republicans; that is, 49.8% compared to 50.2% of the two-party vote. The last Florida senate and governor races (2018) were even closer and only resolved by recounts. If Floridians are casting similar numbers of votes for Republican as for Democratic candidates in statewide races, why are so many more non-statewide elections won by Republicans?
Several interrelated factors are involved. Gerrymandered districts dramatically affect legislative outcomes like U.S. House as well as Florida state senate and house races. While gerrymandering—drawing districts to benefit a particular party or group—is illegal, computer programs to accomplish that are readily available. For more than ten years the Republican State Leadership Committee’s Project REDMAP has successfully gerrymandered many districts in states like Florida.
There are two broad gerrymandering methods: packing (consolidating the other party’s voters into a few districts where they become redundant and win by large margins) and cracking (splitting the other party’s strongholds among multiple districts where they will be a minority in each district). The current U.S. House redistricting plan submitted by Gov. Ron DeSantis effectively “cracked” (or diluted) Democratic strongholds in both north and central Florida and “packed” Democratic strongholds into a small number of districts in south Florida. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project estimates Republicans will win 20 of the 28 districts (or 71%) even though the total vote will be about the same for the two parties. The effect will likely be similar although more muted for Florida state house and senate races.
A second related factor explaining Florida Republican electoral dominance despite each party garnering about the same number of votes is the campaign finance advantage. As former California State Assembly Speaker Jesse Unruh famously observed: “Money is the mother’s milk of politics.” According to Ballotpedia’s summary of data from the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, during the 2020 election cycle (1/1/2019—6/30/2020) Republican Florida state legislative candidates raised $20.6 million compared to the Democrat’s $9.8 million. Similarly, Republican candidates raised on average $108,513 compared to the Democrat’s average of $37,424.
A better than two-to-one contribution differential is substantial. In the current race for governor that gap is even greater. As of April 30, Republican Ron DeSantis had over $105 million in his campaign accounts compared to less than $6 million for Democratic challenger Representative Charlie Crist and less than $4 million for the other Democratic challenger, Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried.
More money by itself does not guarantee victory as demonstrated by Mike Bloomberg’s largely futile 2020 mega donations to Florida Democrats. Still, money enables candidates to turnout supporters and saturate the airwaves in paid media as well as develop sophisticated messaging through social media, particularly on Facebook and Twitter. The Republicans in Florida as well as nationally have been much more successful than Democrats in integrating party messaging and issue appeals into a long-term national growth strategy.
This messaging advantage is a third factor promoting Republican dominance: mastering the campaign narrative. An easily understood storyline is developed to make supporters feel like victims and members of the opposing party become the “enemy.” New messages stoking a sense of victimhood and resentment are reinforced in an ever-expanding cycle.
Election studies have shown voter choices are strongly affected by friends’ opinions. Messages spread through Facebook and Twitter mimic this phenomenon. Strategic use of these messaging platforms played a decisive role in recent elections.
These three factors (gerrymandering, money, and campaign narrative) are interrelated. Money might not “buy me love,” but is most helpful in procuring both campaign commercials and social media impacts. Party funding also supports larger campaign staffs and other enterprises like the ability to gerrymander.
While the gerrymander only directly affects legislative races, it indirectly impacts the availability of talent for executive races like governor or cabinet members. State legislatures act as the “farm team” for executive positions and the majority party develops a much deeper bench.
While GOP numerical dominance in elected offices in Florida may make it appear to be a “red state,” that result can largely be attributed to the factors mentioned above. Assuming numbers of votes won by each party better reflects the state’s political orientation, Florida is more accurately seen as a “purple state.”